论文标题
修改基于网络的随机SEIR模型以说明隔离
Modifying the Network-Based Stochastic SEIR Model to Account for Quarantine
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们对基于网络的随机SEIR流行模型进行了修改，该模型允许对基础接触网络进行修改以说明隔离的影响。我们还讨论了模型所需的变化，以结合情况，其中一定比例的感染者在整个疾病过程中一直无症状。使用一个通用网络模型，每个潜在的接触都具有相同的共同概率，我们进行了一项仿真研究，其中我们将改变四个关键模型参数（传输速率，无症状的概率以及在暴露疾病和感染性疾病状态中所花费的平均时间）并检查对各种对流行病性严重性的测量的影响，包括有效的复制数，包括有效的复制数。我们发现，在传染态和传输速率上花费的平均时间是最重要的模型参数，而在暴露状态中花费的平均时间和剩余无症状的概率不太重要。
In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease. Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the Exposed and Infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We find that the mean length of time spent in the Infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the Exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important.
