论文标题

随机实验中的条件AS-IF分析

Conditional As-If Analyses in Randomized Experiments

论文作者

Pashley, Nicole E., Basse, Guillaume W., Miratrix, Luke W.

论文摘要

自从费舍尔主张随机分组作为推论的基础以来,统计学家众所周知,“分析您的随机化方式”的禁令是众所周知的。然而,即使是那些因随机推理的优点而相信的人,也很少遵循这封信。伯努利随机实验通常被分析为完全随机的实验,并将完全随机的实验分析,就好像已经分层了。更一般而言,分析实验的分析并不少见。本文在基于随机化的框架内研究了这种做法背后的理论基础。具体来说,我们询问何时根据一种设计分析随机进行随机分析实验,就好像它是根据其他一些设计随机分组的。我们表明,这种类型的分析有效的足够条件是,用于分析的设计以适当的条件形式从原始设计得出。我们使用我们的理论来证明某些现有方法,质疑其他方法,最后提出了新的方法论见解,例如根据近似协变量平衡来调节。

The injunction to `analyze the way you randomize' is well-known to statisticians since Fisher advocated for randomization as the basis of inference. Yet even those convinced by the merits of randomization-based inference seldom follow this injunction to the letter. Bernoulli randomized experiments are often analyzed as completely randomized experiments, and completely randomized experiments are analyzed as if they had been stratified; more generally, it is not uncommon to analyze an experiment as if it had been randomized differently. This paper examines the theoretical foundation behind this practice within a randomization-based framework. Specifically, we ask when is it legitimate to analyze an experiment randomized according to one design as if it had been randomized according to some other design. We show that a sufficient condition for this type of analysis to be valid is that the design used for analysis be derived from the original design by an appropriate form of conditioning. We use our theory to justify certain existing methods, question others, and finally suggest new methodological insights such as conditioning on approximate covariate balance.

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