论文标题
结构性因果模型是(可解决的)信用网络
Structural Causal Models Are (Solvable by) Credal Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
结构性因果模型由内源性(明显)和外源性(潜在)变量组成。我们表明,内源性观测会引起外源变量概率的线性约束。这允许将因果模型准确地映射到信用网络中。因此,可以通过标准算法获得因果推断,例如干预措施和反事实,以更新信用网。在可识别的情况下,这些天生返回的尖锐值,而与确切边界相对应的间隔是针对无法识别的查询产生的。给出了允许上述地图的因果模型的表征,并讨论了对通用模型的可伸缩性的讨论。该贡献应被视为一种系统的方法,可以通过信用网络来表示结构性因果模型,从而系统地计算因果推断。提出了许多示例示例,以阐明我们的方法论。广泛的实验表明,信用网络的近似算法可以立即用于在实际尺寸问题中进行因果推断。
A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal model into a credal network. Causal inferences, such as interventions and counterfactuals, can consequently be obtained by standard algorithms for the updating of credal nets. These natively return sharp values in the identifiable case, while intervals corresponding to the exact bounds are produced for unidentifiable queries. A characterization of the causal models that allow the map above to be compactly derived is given, along with a discussion about the scalability for general models. This contribution should be regarded as a systematic approach to represent structural causal models by credal networks and hence to systematically compute causal inferences. A number of demonstrative examples is presented to clarify our methodology. Extensive experiments show that approximate algorithms for credal networks can immediately be used to do causal inference in real-size problems.