论文标题
COVID-19大流行的分数模型：对意大利数据的应用
A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data
论文作者
论文摘要
我们为意大利的Covid-19大流行提供了概率的SIRD模型，在那里我们允许感染，恢复和死亡率是随机的。特别是，潜在的随机因素是由小数布朗尼运动驱动的。我们的模型很简单，只需要校准一些参数即可。
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model is simple and needs only some few parameters to be calibrated.
