论文标题
调查气象因素与美国Covid-19的传播和死亡之间的关联
Investigating the association between meteorological factors and the transmission and fatality of COVID-19 in the US
论文作者
论文摘要
一种新型的冠状病毒病（Covid-19）正在扫除世界，并夺走了数千人的生命。作为当前的中心，美国的证实和死亡案件数量最多。在过去的研究中，已经发现了与许多呼吸系统疾病有关的气象因素。为了理解，气象因素如何以及在何时何时与Covid-19的传播和死亡之间具有最强的关联，我们分析了在孵化窗口内不同时间段内每个气象因子之间的相关性与确认和死亡率和死亡率，并开发统计模型以量化县级效果。结果表明，在当前一天之前的第13-0天最大风速以外的气象变量显示出与每日确认的率最显着的相关性（p <0.05），而在前第13-8天的温度最显着相关（p <0.05）与每日的死亡率最为明显。温度是在全国范围内表现出巨大正相关的唯一气象因素，尤其是在当前爆发最密集的东南部。在许多县，温度的影响对确认的速率具有显着的影响，但对死亡率的影响不超过5 pmp（大部分在0.01％以内）。这项研究的发现将有助于了解气象因素在Covid-19的传播中的作用，并为公众和个人提供与这种全球流行病作斗争的见解。
A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is sweeping the world and has taken away thousands of lives. As the current epicenter, the United States has the largest number of confirmed and death cases of COVID-19. Meteorological factors have been found associated with many respiratory diseases in the past studies. In order to understand that how and during which period of time do the meteorological factors have the strongest association with the transmission and fatality of COVID-19, we analyze the correlation between each meteorological factor during different time periods within the incubation window and the confirmation and fatality rate, and develop statistic models to quantify the effects at county level. Results show that meteorological variables except maximum wind speed during the day 13 - 0 before current day shows the most significant correlation (P < 0.05) with the daily confirmed rate, while temperature during the day 13 - 8 before are most significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with the daily fatality rate. Temperature is the only meteorological factor showing dramatic positive association nationally, particularly in the southeast US where the current outbreak most intensive. The influence of temperature is remarkable on the confirmed rate with an increase of over 5 pmp in many counties, but not as much on the fatality rate (mostly within 0.01%). Findings in this study will help understanding the role of meteorological factors in the spreading of COVID-19 and provide insights for public and individual in fighting against this global epidemic.
