论文标题
Covid-19-19
The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on U.S. electricity demand and supply: an early view from the data
论文作者
论文摘要
在最近的COVID-19大流行病开始后，许多研究报告了电力消耗趋势的可能变化。这些报告的总体主题是``大流行期间的用电减少，但电网仍然可靠' - 主要是由于经济活动减少。在本文中，我们分析了直到2020年5月底的电力数据，研究了电力需求和变量，这些变量可能表明电网压力，例如峰值需求和需求速度率。我们将这项研究限制在美国的三个州：纽约，加利福尼亚和佛罗里达州。结果表明，大流行对电力需求的影响并不是相当的时间范围的简单减少，并且区域之间存在明显的差异。可能表明网格压力的变量也传达了混合信息：有些表示压力增加，有些表示减少，有些则表示任何明显的差异。一个积极的信息是，在寄宿订单发布时观察到的某些变化似乎可以在2020年5月之前恢复。将所有观察到的变化归因于大流行的关键挑战是对天气的纠正。我们提供一种天气校正方法，将其应用于城市范围的小区域，并讨论估计需求变化的含义。天气校正练习强调了天气校正至关重要。
After the onset of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a number of studies reported on possible changes in electricity consumption trends. The overall theme of these reports was that ``electricity use has decreased during the pandemic, but the power grid is still reliable''---mostly due to reduced economic activity. In this paper we analyze electricity data upto end of May 2020, examining both electricity demand and variables that can indicate stress on the power grid, such as peak demand and demand ramp-rate. We limit this study to three states in the USA: New York, California, and Florida. The results indicate that the effect of the pandemic on electricity demand is not a simple reduction from comparable time frames, and there are noticeable differences among regions. The variables that can indicate stress on the grid also conveyed mixed messages: some indicate an increase in stress, some indicate a decrease, and some do not indicate any clear difference. A positive message is that some of the changes that were observed around the time stay-at-home orders were issued appeared to revert back by May 2020. A key challenge in ascribing any observed change to the pandemic is correcting for weather. We provide a weather-correction method, apply it to a small city-wide area, and discuss the implications of the estimated changes in demand. The weather correction exercise underscored that weather-correction is as challenging as it is important.
