论文标题
锁定对互惠流动性的异质影响
Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
论文作者
论文摘要
在没有疫苗的情况下，与冠状病毒扩散的斗争集中在维持身体距离上。为了研究此类措施对互惠流量的影响，我们分析了一个移动数据集，每天3月和2020年4月在葡萄牙人的日常流量。在流动性较低的市政当局中，流出量减少了$ 10-20 \％$，而这种减少的人口不与人口规模无关。而对于高流动性的市政当局，减少是人口规模的单调增加功能，最大的市政当局甚至超过了60美元。由于这种异质性，最可能的病毒扩散路径发生了重大的结构变化，在对控制措施的影响进行建模时，必须考虑这一点。
Without a vaccine, the fight against the spreading of the coronavirus has focused on maintaining physical distance. To study the impact of such measures on inter-municipality traffic, we analyze a mobile dataset with the daily flow of people in Portugal in March and April 2020. We find that the reduction in inter-municipality traffic depends strongly on its initial outflow. In municipalities where the mobility is low, the outflow reduced by $10-20\%$ and this decrease was independent of the population size. Whereas, for municipalities of high mobility, the reduction was a monotonic increasing function of the population size and it even exceeded $60\%$ for the largest municipalities. As a consequence of such heterogeneities, there were significant structural changes on the most probable paths for the spreading of the virus, which must be considered when modeling the impact of control measures.
