论文标题
用于生存分析的一般机器学习框架
A General Machine Learning Framework for Survival Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
事件时间数据的建模(也称为生存分析)需要专门的方法,可以处理审查和截断,时间变化的特征和效果,并扩展到具有多个竞争事件的设置。但是,许多用于生存分析的机器学习方法仅考虑具有右键数据和比例危害假设的标准设置。确实提供扩展的方法通常在这些挑战的最多部分解决,并且通常需要无法将无法直接集成到标准机器学习工作流中的专用软件。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个非常通用的机器学习框架,用于实时分析,该框架使用数据增强策略将复杂的生存任务减少到标准泊松回归任务。该重新制定基于良好的统计理论。通过提出的方法,任何可以优化泊松(log-)可能性的算法,例如梯度增强的树,深神经网络,基于模型的增强以及更多更多的算法,可以在事实分析的情况下使用。提出的技术不需要关于事件时间的分布或功能形状和功能和相互作用效果的任何假设。基于提议的框架,我们开发了具有专业状态的新方法,这些方法在准确性和多功能性方面具有专业的最新方法,但对编程工作的投资相对较小,或针对专业方法学专业知识的要求。
The modeling of time-to-event data, also known as survival analysis, requires specialized methods that can deal with censoring and truncation, time-varying features and effects, and that extend to settings with multiple competing events. However, many machine learning methods for survival analysis only consider the standard setting with right-censored data and proportional hazards assumption. The methods that do provide extensions usually address at most a subset of these challenges and often require specialized software that can not be integrated into standard machine learning workflows directly. In this work, we present a very general machine learning framework for time-to-event analysis that uses a data augmentation strategy to reduce complex survival tasks to standard Poisson regression tasks. This reformulation is based on well developed statistical theory. With the proposed approach, any algorithm that can optimize a Poisson (log-)likelihood, such as gradient boosted trees, deep neural networks, model-based boosting and many more can be used in the context of time-to-event analysis. The proposed technique does not require any assumptions with respect to the distribution of event times or the functional shapes of feature and interaction effects. Based on the proposed framework we develop new methods that are competitive with specialized state of the art approaches in terms of accuracy, and versatility, but with comparatively small investments of programming effort or requirements for specialized methodological know-how.