论文标题
建模新的Covid-19-19向欧洲国家建模的大流行扩散和实施方法
Methodology for Modelling the new COVID-19 Pandemic Spread and Implementation to European Countries
论文作者
论文摘要
在新病毒Covid-19引起的疾病中断之后，世界上大多数国家都达到了缓解阶段。在此阶段，对欧洲国家的每日报道案例和其他参数进行了更准确的数据分析，并已在这项工作中进行。基于适合在较大人群中实施流行病的提议的参数化模型，我们专注于疾病扩散，我们研究了所获得的曲线，并研究了该国特征与参数化参数之间的可能相关性。我们还开发了一种将模型与基于SIR的模型耦合的方法，该模型确定了参数空间的基本和有效的生殖数。在将来这种排斥性疾病复发的情况下，获得的结果和结论可能很有用。
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other parameters became possible for the European countries and has been performed in this work. Based on a proposed parametrization model appropriate for implementation to an epidemic in a large population, we focused on the disease spread and we studied the obtained curves, as well as, we investigated probable correlations between the country's characteristics and the parameters of the parametrization. We have also developed a methodology for coupling our model to the SIR-based models determining the basic and the effective reproductive number referring to the parameter space. The obtained results and conclusions could be useful in the case of a recurrence of this repulsive disease in the future.
