论文标题
C19-Tranet：SARS-COV-2的经验，全球索引传输网络
C19-TraNet: an empirical, global index-case transmission network of SARS-CoV-2
论文作者
论文摘要
起源于武汉（Wuhan），新型冠状病毒，严重的急性呼吸综合症2（SARS-COV-2），由于其迅速且同时传播到附近和远处的国家，整个Globe的医疗保健系统惊讶。为了获得对全球传输路线在Covid-19传播中的作用的系统级别的理解，在这项研究中，我们开发了第一个被称为C19-Tranet的SARS-COV-2的经验，全球，索引传输网络。我们使用政府新闻稿，其官方的社交媒体手柄和在线新闻报告手动策划了国家明智的指数库的旅行历史，以构建这款C19-Tranet，它是一个时空，稀疏的，稀疏的，增长的网络，包括187个节点和199个节点，并遵循幂律学位分配。为了对生长的C19-Tranet进行建模，提出了一种新型的随机量表（SSF）算法，该算法是在每个时间步骤中都说明两个节点的随机添加以及边缘。观察到C19-Tranet中特殊的连通性模式，其特征是四度多项式生长曲线，该曲线与从其1,000 SSF实现的集合中获得的平均随机连通性模式显着不同。分区C19-tranet，利用边缘介绍，发现大多数大型社区由属于不同世界地区的国家的异质混合物组成，这表明对疾病传播没有空间限制。这项工作描述的是，超级传播者通过多个传输路线很快将病毒运送到与当地社区的远程地理位置。
Originating in Wuhan, the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has astonished health-care systems across globe due to its rapid and simultaneous spread to the neighboring and distantly located countries. To gain the systems level understanding of the role of global transmission routes in the COVID-19 spread, in this study, we have developed the first, empirical, global, index-case transmission network of SARS-CoV-2 termed as C19-TraNet. We manually curated the travel history of country wise index-cases using government press releases, their official social media handles and online news reports to construct this C19-TraNet that is a spatio-temporal, sparse, growing network comprising of 187 nodes and 199 edges and follows a power-law degree distribution. To model the growing C19-TraNet, a novel stochastic scale free (SSF) algorithm is proposed that accounts for stochastic addition of both nodes as well as edges at each time step. A peculiar connectivity pattern in C19-TraNet is observed, characterized by a fourth degree polynomial growth curve, that significantly diverges from the average random connectivity pattern obtained from an ensemble of its 1,000 SSF realizations. Partitioning the C19-TraNet, using edge betweenness, it is found that most of the large communities are comprised of a heterogeneous mixture of countries belonging to different world regions suggesting that there are no spatial constraints on the spread of disease. This work characterizes the superspreaders that have very quickly transported the virus, through multiple transmission routes, to long range geographical locations alongwith their local neighborhoods.
