论文标题
R_0的生殖数字可以说什么
What the reproductive number R_0 can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
长期以来，生殖数R_0（及其初始疾病出现后的价值）长期以来用于预测病原体入侵的可能性，以评估流行病的潜在严重性，并制定围绕干预措施的政策。但是，通常忽略的复杂性引起了使用度量的混乱。这对于近代大流行病毒SARS-COV-2（COVID-19的致病药物）尤其明显。我们解决了其中一些误解，即，R随时间变化，空间的变化如何变化，并通过参考R的数学定义和当前大流行的示例来与流行病有关。我们希望对R的用途，细微差别和局限性更好地了解对流行病的传播，流行病的严重程度以及在SARS-COV-2背景下的干预措施的影响。
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions. However, often ignored complexities have generated confusion around use of the metric. This is particularly apparent with the emergent pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. We address some of these misconceptions, namely, how R changes over time, varies over space, and relates to epidemic size by referencing the mathematical definition of R and examples from the current pandemic. We hope that a better appreciation of the uses, nuances, and limitations of R facilitates a better understanding of epidemic spread, epidemic severity, and the effects of interventions in the context of SARS-CoV-2.
