论文标题
COVID-19大流行的隔室模型的结构可识别性和可观察性
Structural Identifiability and Observability of Compartmental Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
最近的冠状病毒病(Covid-19)爆发显着提高了公众对动态模型实用性的认识和欣赏。同时,矛盾模型预测的传播突出了它们的局限性。如果无法通过输出测量结果确定模型的某些参数和/或状态变量,则可能会损害其产生正确见解的能力以及控制系统的可能性。通常使用隔室模型对流行动力学进行分析,并且此类模型的许多变化已用于分析和预测COVID-19的大流行的演变。在本文中,我们调查了文献中提出的不同模型,组装了36个模型结构的列表,并评估了它们提供可靠信息的能力。我们使用结构可识别性和可观察性的控制理论概念来解决问题。由于某些参数在流行病的过程中可能会有所不同,因此我们考虑常数和随时间变化的参数假设。我们分析了所有模型的结构可识别性和可观察性,考虑了所有合理的输出选择和随时间变化的参数,这使我们分析了255个不同的模型版本。我们根据模型在不同的假设下的结构可识别性和可观察性进行分类,并讨论结果的含义。我们还用一个示例说明了几种补救模型缺乏可观察性的替代方法。我们的分析提供了为每个目的选择最有用的模型的指南,并考虑到可用的知识和测量。
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted their limitations. If some parameters and/or state variables of a model cannot be determined from output measurements, its ability to yield correct insights -- as well as the possibility of controlling the system -- may be compromised. Epidemic dynamics are commonly analysed using compartmental models, and many variations of such models have been used for analysing and predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we survey the different models proposed in the literature, assembling a list of 36 model structures and assessing their ability to provide reliable information. We address the problem using the control theoretic concepts of structural identifiability and observability. Since some parameters can vary during the course of an epidemic, we consider both the constant and time-varying parameter assumptions. We analyse the structural identifiability and observability of all of the models, considering all plausible choices of outputs and time-varying parameters, which leads us to analyse 255 different model versions. We classify the models according to their structural identifiability and observability under the different assumptions and discuss the implications of the results. We also illustrate with an example several alternative ways of remedying the lack of observability of a model. Our analyses provide guidelines for choosing the most informative model for each purpose, taking into account the available knowledge and measurements.