论文标题
国家锁定对选定欧洲国家和美国的共同19号死亡的影响使用变更模型
Impact of national lockdown on COVID-19 deaths in select European countries and the US using a Changes-in-Changes model
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们估计了国家锁定对19日相关的欧洲国家 /百万人民的相关总和每日死亡的影响。特别是，我们比较了实施全国性锁定的国家（治疗组）；比利时，丹麦，法国，德国，意大利，挪威，西班牙，英国（英国）和美国向瑞典（对照组），这些（对照组）没有使用变更变化（CIC）估计模型强加国家锁定。与标准差异差异模型相比，CIC模型的关键优势在于，在没有任何政策干预的情况下，CIC允许结果的均值和差异随着时间的流逝而变化，而CIC在选择政策干预时会说明内生性。我们的结果表明，与瑞典没有施加国家锁定的瑞典相比，在某种程度上，美国是全国范围内锁定对COVID-19相关总数和每日每日死亡人数减少的两个国家。在挪威和丹麦，相对于瑞典，每天的人每日死亡总计没有显着影响。而在其他国家；比利时，法国，意大利，西班牙和英国，锁定的效果是相反的方向，也就是说，与瑞典相比，他们在封锁后的covid-19相关总和每天的死亡人数明显更高。我们的结果表明，全国范围内锁定对COVID-19相关的总计和每日死亡的影响因一个国家而异。
In this paper, we estimate the impact of national lockdown on COVID-19 related total and daily deaths, per million people, in select European countries. In particular, we compare countries that imposed a nationwide lockdown (Treatment group); Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, United Kingdom (UK), and the US, to Sweden (Control group) that did not impose national lockdown using a changes-in-changes (CIC) estimation model. The key advantage of the CIC model as compared to the standard difference-in-difference model is that CIC allows for mean and variance of the outcomes to change over time in the absence of any policy intervention, and CIC accounts for endogeneity in the choice of policy intervention. Our results indicate that in contrast to Sweden, which did not impose a national lockdown, Germany, and to some extent, the US were the two countries where nationwide lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction in COVID-19 related total and daily deaths per million people. In Norway and Denmark, there was no significant impact on total and daily deaths per million people relative to Sweden. Whereas in other countries; Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK, the effect of the lockdown was in the opposite direction, that is, they experienced significantly higher COVID-19 related total and daily deaths per million people, post the lockdown as compared to Sweden. Our results suggest that the impact of nationwide lockdown on COVID-19 related total and daily deaths per million people varied from one country to another.
