论文标题
病毒大流行的多尺度模型:全球联系世界中的异质互动实体
A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world
论文作者
论文摘要
本文致力于由侵略性病毒引发的大流行的多学科建模,特别是所谓的\ textit {sars-cov--2严重的急性呼吸综合症,Corona病毒N.2}。这项研究是在多阶段框架内开发的,该框架是从病毒本身和细胞的小尺度到大规模的个体的不同空间量表的相互作用,再到人口的集体行为。由于流行病学家,免疫学家和经济学家以及数学建模者的贡献,跨学科的愿景得到了发展。内容的第一部分致力于了解系统的复杂特征和建模理由的设计。在本文的第二部分中,通过显示病毒如何成功地传播到受感染的个体中,成功恢复,以及空间模式,随后通过动力学和晶格模型研究了模型。第三部分报告了病毒学,流行病学,免疫竞争和经济领域的研究的贡献,也集中在社会行为上。最后,提出了一项批判性分析,展望研究观点。
This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called \textit{SARS--CoV--2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2}. The study is developed within a multiscale framework accounting for the interaction of different spatial scales, from the small scale of the virus itself and cells, to the large scale of individuals and further up to the collective behaviour of populations. An interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions of epidemiologists, immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical modellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale. The modelling approach is treated in the second part of the paper by showing both how the virus propagates into infected individuals, successfully and not successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns, which are subsequently studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reports the contribution of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition, and economy focused also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is proposed looking ahead to research perspectives.