论文标题
基于代理人的易感性模型的社会疏远和流行病复兴
Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models
论文作者
论文摘要
一旦通过非药物干预措施有效地遏制了流行病爆发，随后释放社会距离限制以防止感染的灾难性复苏需要安全方案。我们报告了在四个不同的空间组织的晶格和网络体系结构上，基于个人易感性侵袭性的模型变体进行了基于个体的数值模拟，其中实现了接触和移动性约束。我们强烈地发现，如果释放这些限制的释放被充分延迟（至少在未避免的爆发的时间至少三个限制的时间内，并且长距离连接的峰值至少保持较低的水平（限制为较低的整体连接率），那么流行病复发波的强度和空间扩散可以限制到可管理的程度上。
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).
