论文标题
繁殖率非常适合19
A reproduction rate which perfectly fits Covid-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种简单的技术，以比较仅基于确认病例的时间序列，在不同地区的Covid-19流行病的发展。每天服用的每周一次新感染被解释为Covid-19的感染潜力。我们为感染潜力（包括无症状的病例）得出了稳健的时变繁殖率，这不取决于死亡率或测试强度。它几乎不需要假设，并且显示出比几个国家的官方繁殖率更合理的时间课程。
We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of Covid-19. We derive a robust time-varying reproduction rate for the infection potential, including asymptomatic cases, which does not depend on death rate or testing intensity. It requires few assumptions and shows a more plausible time course than official reproduction rates in several countries.
