论文标题
使用灵活的温室气体指标对巴黎协议的具有成本效益的实施
Cost-effective implementation of the Paris Agreement using flexible greenhouse gas metrics
论文作者
论文摘要
温室气体（GHG）指标，即，转化因子以二氧化碳的共同规模评估非CO2气候抗性的排放，在实施《巴黎协定》时起着至关重要的功能。尽管已经提出了不同的指标，但是在一系列途径下，尚未对其经济成本效益进行调查，包括暂时缺少或大量超出巴黎协议温度目标的途径。在这里，我们表明甲烷的成本效益指标最小化气候缓解的总成本是时间依赖性的，主要取决于途径，并受到温度过时的强烈影响。 《巴黎协定》将实施常规的100年全球变暖潜力（GWP100），这是未来几十年的成本效益指标的近似值。但是，从长远来看，我们建议当事方考虑将共同指标的选择适应未来的途径，作为全球股票的一部分，如果成本效益是一个关键的考虑因素，则作为全球股票的一部分。
Greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics, that is, conversion factors to evaluate the emissions of non-CO2 climate forcers on a common scale with CO2, serve crucial functions upon the implementation of the Paris Agreement. While different metrics have been proposed, their economic cost-effectiveness has not been investigated under a range of pathways, including those temporarily missing or significantly overshooting the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. Here we show that cost-effective metrics for methane that minimize the overall cost of climate mitigation are time-dependent, primarily determined by the pathway, and strongly influenced by temperature overshoot. The Paris Agreement will implement the conventional 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), a good approximation of cost-effective metrics for the coming decades. In the longer term, however, we suggest that parties consider adapting the choice of common metrics to the future pathway as it unfolds, as part of the global stocktake, if cost-effectiveness is a key consideration.
