论文标题
贝叶斯神经网络
Bayesian Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
最近,神经网络已成为分析复杂和抽象数据模型的强大工具。但是,他们的引入本质上增加了我们对分析的特征与模型相关的特征以及哪些是由于神经网络引起的不确定性。这意味着,神经网络的预测具有偏见,而这些偏见与是否是由于创建和观察到数据的真实性质而无法毫无区别的。为了尝试解决此类问题,我们讨论贝叶斯神经网络:可以表征由于网络引起的不确定性的神经网络。特别是,我们介绍了贝叶斯统计框架,该框架使我们能够根据观察某些数据的根深蒂固性和不确定性的根深蒂固,从我们缺乏有关如何创建和观察数据的知识中的不确定性。在介绍此类技术时,我们展示了如何原则上获得通过神经网络预测的错误,并提供了表征这些错误的两种偏爱方法。我们还将描述这两种方法在付诸实践时如何具有实质性的陷阱,强调需要在使用神经网络时真正能够进行推断的其他统计技术。
In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related and which are due to the neural network. This means that predictions by neural networks have biases which cannot be trivially distinguished from being due to the true nature of the creation and observation of data or not. In order to attempt to address such issues we discuss Bayesian neural networks: neural networks where the uncertainty due to the network can be characterised. In particular, we present the Bayesian statistical framework which allows us to categorise uncertainty in terms of the ingrained randomness of observing certain data and the uncertainty from our lack of knowledge about how data can be created and observed. In presenting such techniques we show how errors in prediction by neural networks can be obtained in principle, and provide the two favoured methods for characterising these errors. We will also describe how both of these methods have substantial pitfalls when put into practice, highlighting the need for other statistical techniques to truly be able to do inference when using neural networks.