论文标题
锁定策略，流动性模式和共同模式
Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一个多事件模型，并在各个国家的时间，各种公共政策强度的差异内和之间进行利用，以研究其对Covid-19的日常发病率以及135个国家 /地区人口流动模式的动态影响。我们通过考虑多种干预措施的同时存在来消除并发政策偏见。本文的主要结果是，取消公共事件并对私人聚会施加限制，随后关闭学校对减少Covid-19的日常发病率的最明显影响。紧随其后的是工作场所以及全职要求，其统计学意义和效果水平并不那么明显。取而代之的是，我们发现对国际旅行控制，公共交通封闭以及对城市和地区运动的限制没有影响。我们确定这些发现是通过与时间使用和流行病学因素一致的方式来介导的。
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. We remove concurrent policy bias by taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions. The main result of the paper is that cancelling public events and imposing restrictions on private gatherings followed by school closures have quantitatively the most pronounced effects on reducing the daily incidence of COVID-19. They are followed by workplace as well as stay-at-home requirements, whose statistical significance and levels of effect are not as pronounced. Instead, we find no effects for international travel controls, public transport closures and restrictions on movements across cities and regions. We establish that these findings are mediated by their effect on population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors.
