论文标题
一种新的SEIR类型模型，包括隔离效应及其在3月至4月2020年在波兰的Covid-19 pandemia分析中的应用
A new SEIR type model including quarantine effects and its application to analysis of Covid-19 pandemia in Poland in March-April 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
接触跟踪和隔离是良好的非药物流行控制工具。该论文旨在阐明这些措施在Covid-19-19的流行病中的影响。引入了一个新的确定性模型（SEIRQ：易感，暴露，传染性，删除，隔离），并使用Q隔室捕获个人并延迟释放它们。我们获得了一个简单的规则，该规则定义了从隔离参数，诊断案例和传输参数的比率方面定义$ \ MATHCAL {R} $。该模型于2020年3月至2020年4月在波兰的流行病中应用，当时已经采取了社会距离措施。我们研究了与诊断病例不同比率相对应的3种情况。我们的结果表明，取决于方案的接触跟踪可能会阻止50 \％至90 \％的案件。隔离的影响受未诊断病例的比例限制。考虑到在引入社会限制之前的波兰的传播强度，在没有任何社会疏远措施的情况下，不可能实现对流行病的控制。
Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in COVID-19 epidemic. A new deterministic model is introduced (SEIRQ: susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed, quarantined) with Q compartment capturing individuals and releasing them with delay. We obtain a simple rule defining the reproduction number $\mathcal{R}$ in terms of quarantine parameters, ratio of diagnosed cases and transmission parameters. The model is applied to the epidemic in Poland in March - April 2020, when social distancing measures were in place. We investigate 3 scenarios corresponding to different ratios of diagnosed cases. Our results show that depending on the scenario contact tracing could have prevented from 50\% to over 90\% of cases. The effects of quarantine are limited by fraction of undiagnosed cases. Taking into account the transmission intensity in Poland prior to introduction of social restrictions it is unlikely that the control of the epidemic could be achieved without any social distancing measures.
