论文标题
了解和监测COVID-19从医疗紧急呼叫中的流行病的演变：巴黎地区的例子
Understanding and monitoring the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic from medical emergency calls: the example of the Paris area
论文作者
论文摘要
我们通过分析该地区四个中央部门的EMS接收的医疗紧急呼叫（SAMU 75、92、93和94）的EMS接收的医疗紧急呼叫，描绘了2020年3月至4月在巴黎地区的危机期间的共同流行病的演变。我们的研究揭示了这些部门之间的强烈差异。我们表明，每个流行病的对数可以通过时间的分段线性函数近似。这使我们能够区分流行病的不同阶段，并确定卫生措施及其对EMS负载的影响之间的延迟。这也导致算法，从而可以检测流行病的复苏。我们依靠运输PDE流行病学模型，并使用Perron-Frobenius理论和热带几何形状的方法。
We portray the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic during the crisis of March-April 2020 in the Paris area, by analyzing the medical emergency calls received by the EMS of the four central departments of this area (Centre 15 of SAMU 75, 92, 93 and 94). Our study reveals strong dissimilarities between these departments. We show that the logarithm of each epidemic observable can be approximated by a piecewise linear function of time. This allows us to distinguish the different phases of the epidemic, and to identify the delay between sanitary measures and their influence on the load of EMS. This also leads to an algorithm, allowing one to detect epidemic resurgences. We rely on a transport PDE epidemiological model, and we use methods from Perron-Frobenius theory and tropical geometry.
