论文标题

从预测到处方:在19009大流行中非药物干预措施的进化优化

From Prediction to Prescription: Evolutionary Optimization of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the COVID-19 Pandemic

论文作者

Miikkulainen, Risto, Francon, Olivier, Meyerson, Elliot, Qiu, Xin, Canzani, Elisa, Hodjat, Babak

论文摘要

已经开发了几种模型,以预测如何使用非药品干预措施(NPI)(例如社会疏远限制,学校和商业封闭),如何包含它。本文展示了如何使用进化AI来促进下一步,即自动确定最有效的干预策略。通过进化替代辅助处方(ESP),可以生成大量候选策略,并通过预测模型对其进行评估。原则上,可以为不同的国家和地区定制策略,并平衡遏制大流行的需求以及最大程度地减少其经济影响的需求。尽管仍然受到可用数据的限制,但早期的实验表明,工作场所和学校限制是最重要的,需要仔细设计。它还表明,提升限制的结果可能是不可靠的,并提出了可以轻松实施限制的创新方式,例如通过随着时间的推移交替。随着越来越多的数据可用,该方法在处理Covid-19以及可能的未来大流行时可能越来越有用。

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper demonstrates how evolutionary AI could be used to facilitate the next step, i.e. determining most effective intervention strategies automatically. Through evolutionary surrogate-assisted prescription (ESP), it is possible to generate a large number of candidate strategies and evaluate them with predictive models. In principle, strategies can be customized for different countries and locales, and balance the need to contain the pandemic and the need to minimize their economic impact. While still limited by available data, early experiments suggest that workplace and school restrictions are the most important and need to be designed carefully. It also demonstrates that results of lifting restrictions can be unreliable, and suggests creative ways in which restrictions can be implemented softly, e.g. by alternating them over time. As more data becomes available, the approach can be increasingly useful in dealing with COVID-19 as well as possible future pandemics.

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