论文标题
SARS-COV-2的传输动力学中的随机性和异质性
Stochasticity and heterogeneity in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
论文作者
论文摘要
导致Covid-19疾病的SARS-COV-2在全球范围内迅速移动，感染了数百万，并杀死了数十万。基本的繁殖数已被广泛使用和滥用以表征病毒的传播性，隐藏了传播是随机的事实，由少数个体主导，并且由超级宣传事件（SSES）驱动。不应忽略独特的传输特征，例如低流行率下的高随机性以及SSE在传输动力学上所起的核心作用。许多爆炸性的SSE都发生在室内环境中，刺激了大流行并塑造其传播，例如长期护理设施，监狱，肉类包装植物，鱼厂，游轮，巡游船，家庭聚会，聚会和夜总会。这些SSE表明了迫切需要了解传输路线，同时构成了一个机会，可以有效地包含有针对性的干预措施以消除SSES。在这里，我们描述了SSE的潜在类型，它们如何影响传播以及为SARS-COV-2控制的建议。
SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 disease has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used and misused to characterize the transmissibility of the virus, hides the fact that transmission is stochastic, is dominated by a small number of individuals, and is driven by super-spreading events (SSEs). The distinct transmission features, such as high stochasticity under low prevalence, and the central role played by SSEs on transmission dynamics, should not be overlooked. Many explosive SSEs have occurred in indoor settings stoking the pandemic and shaping its spread, such as long-term care facilities, prisons, meat-packing plants, fish factories, cruise ships, family gatherings, parties and night clubs. These SSEs demonstrate the urgent need to understand routes of transmission, while posing an opportunity that outbreak can be effectively contained with targeted interventions to eliminate SSEs. Here, we describe the potential types of SSEs, how they influence transmission, and give recommendations for control of SARS-CoV-2.
