论文标题
意大利地区的COVID-19重症监护率的短期预测的合奏方法
An ensemble approach to short-term forecast of COVID-19 intensive care occupancy in Italian Regions
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19期间的重症监护床的可用性对于确保对严重影响的患者的最佳治疗至关重要。在这项工作中，我们展示了一种简单的策略，用于短期预测COVID-19 ICU床，在2月至2020年5月的意大利爆发期间，它非常有效。我们的方法基于两种简单方法的最佳合奏：一种广义的线性混合回归模型，该模型在不同领域汇集了不同领域的信息，并在不同的领域以及特定的非机构的无性自动化方法学上。最佳的权重估计使用放假的基本原理。在意大利流行病期间，该方法已被建立和验证。包括其在区域级别预测ICU占用率的绩效的报告。
The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model which pools information over different areas, and an area-specific non-stationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are estimated using a leave-last-out rationale. The approach has been set up and validated during the epidemic in Italy. A report of its performance for predicting ICU occupancy at Regional level is included.
