论文标题
对自然资源管理的生态制度的最快发现
Quickest Detection of Ecological Regimes for Natural Resource Management
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了自然资源的随机动态，这是生态制度转移的威胁。我们在不确定性下建立了帕累托最佳政权转移检测框架，从而最大程度地减少了经济代理人意识到转变的延迟。我们在形成最佳资源提取策略的形成中将生态系统监视整合在一起。我们充分解决了利润最大化的垄断者的案例，研究了其对政权转移检测的反应，并通过将结果扩展到其他决策者和功能形式来表明我们的框架的普遍性。我们将我们的框架应用于cantareira Water Reservoir的案例，在巴西SãoPaulo，Brazil，并研究其消耗式水的供应水和供水的事件。
We study the stochastic dynamics of natural resources under the threat of ecological regime shifts. We establish a Pareto optimal framework of regime shift detection under uncertainty that minimizes the delay with which economic agents become aware of the shift. We integrate ecosystem surveillance in the formation of optimal resource extraction policies. We fully solve the case of a profit-maximizing monopolist, study its response to regime shift detection and show the generality of our framework by extending our results to other decision makers and functional forms.We apply our framework to the case of the Cantareira water reservoir in São Paulo, Brazil, and study the events that led to its depletion and the consequent water supply crisis.
