论文标题
非强制性措施充分降低了东京人类流行期间东京的人类流动性
Non-Compulsory Measures Sufficiently Reduced Human Mobility in Tokyo during the COVID-19 Epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管大规模的移动性数据已成为监测Covid-19大流行期间的移动性模式的流行工具，但日本东京的非强制性措施对人类流动性模式的影响一直没有研究。在这里，我们使用从东京超过200k的匿名手机用户收集的移动性数据来分析人类流动性行为，社会接触率的时间变化及其与Covid-19的可传播性的相关性。分析得出的结论是，到4月15日（紧急状态1周），人类流动行为减少了50％左右，导致东京社会接触的70％降低，显示了非强制性措施的有效性。此外，数据驱动的人类迁移率指标的减少与东京估计有效繁殖数量的减少相关。这种经验见解可以告知决策者决定足够的流动性降低以遏制该疾病。
While large scale mobility data has become a popular tool to monitor the mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impacts of non-compulsory measures in Tokyo, Japan on human mobility patterns has been under-studied. Here, we analyze the temporal changes in human mobility behavior, social contact rates, and their correlations with the transmissibility of COVID-19, using mobility data collected from more than 200K anonymized mobile phone users in Tokyo. The analysis concludes that by April 15th (1 week into state of emergency), human mobility behavior decreased by around 50%, resulting in a 70% reduction of social contacts in Tokyo, showing the effectiveness of non-compulsory measures. Furthermore, the reduction in data-driven human mobility metrics showed correlation with the decrease in estimated effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in Tokyo. Such empirical insights could inform policy makers on deciding sufficient levels of mobility reduction to contain the disease.
