论文标题
交错的释放策略，用于共同19控制：按年龄按依次放松限制的成本和收益
Staggered Release Policies for COVID-19 Control: Costs and Benefits of Sequentially Relaxing Restrictions by Age
论文作者
论文摘要
强大的社会距离限制对于迄今为止的COVID-19爆发至关重要，下一个问题是何时以及如何放松这些限制。为了确定相对于当前政策，探索了跨群体放松限制的顺序时机，以确定同时减少健康风险和经济停滞的政策。目的是减轻健康风险，尤其是在最脆弱的亚人群中，同时还管理限制对经济活动的有害影响。本文的结果表明，与严格的社会距离协议中适当构建的年龄定义亚组的顺序释放相比，与在锁定后同时释放所有个人的总体死亡率可能会导致整体死亡率较低。最佳释放策略在最小化总体死亡率方面必须是顺序的，并且重要的是要正确时间交错释放的每个步骤。该模型允许测试交错释放政策的各种定时选择，这些释放政策可以提供可能有助于设计，测试和计划疾病管理政策的见解，以实现正在进行的Covid-19的大流行和未来爆发。
Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored in order to identify policies that simultaneously reduce health risks and economic stagnation relative to current policies. The goal will be to mitigate health risks, particularly among the most fragile sub-populations, while also managing the deleterious effect of restrictions on economic activity. The results of this paper show that a properly constructed sequential release of age-defined subgroups from strict social distancing protocols can lead to lower overall fatality rates than the simultaneous release of all individuals after a lockdown. The optimal release policy, in terms of minimizing overall death rate, must be sequential in nature, and it is important to properly time each step of the staggered release. This model allows for testing of various timing choices for staggered release policies, which can provide insights that may be helpful in the design, testing, and planning of disease management policies for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and future outbreaks.
