论文标题
隔离的两级建模
Two-level modeling of quarantine
论文作者
论文摘要
流行病的连续模型未考虑社会联系的基本微观网络结构。当大多数人大大减少社交互动的数量时，这种缺点变得极端，而其他人（例如杂货店的收银员）每天继续保持数百个联系。我们制定了隔离的两级模型。在微观层面上，我们假设一个单个邻域假设一个星系结构。在介质水平上，将社区放置在具有最近邻居相互作用的二维晶格上。将建模结果与密歇根州（美国）几个县的Covid-19数据进行了比较，并确定了参数的相图。
Continuum models of epidemics do not take into account the underlying microscopic network structure of social connections. This drawback becomes extreme during quarantine when most people dramatically decrease their number of social interactions, while others (like cashiers in grocery stores) continue maintaining hundreds of contacts per day. We formulate a two-level model of quarantine. On a microscopic level, we model a single neighborhood assuming a star-network structure. On a mesoscopic level, the neighborhoods are placed on a two-dimensional lattice with nearest neighbors interactions. The modeling results are compared with the COVID-19 data for several counties in Michigan (USA) and the phase diagram of parameters is identified.
