论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
The resumption of sports competitions after COVID-19 lockdown: The case of the Spanish football league
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们提出了一个随机的离散时间SEIR（易感性接触式复发）模型，该模型适用于在足球比赛中描述Covid-19的传播。具体来说，我们担心西班牙国家橄榄球联盟La Liga的重新开始，该联赛目前是5月 - 2020年 - 剩下11个固定装置。我们的模型包括两个个体的额外状态，即受限制和隔离的状态，这些状态是在个人出现COVID-19症状或进行阳性结果的病毒测试时达到的。该模型还考虑了玩家的相互作用动态，考虑了三种不同的感染来源：球员社交圈，在训练期间与他/她的团队同事的接触以及比赛期间与竞争对手的互动。我们的结果突出了比赛之间的影响，病毒测试的频率以及它们对赛季结束时感染玩家数量的敏感性的影响。遵循我们的发现，我们终于提出了各种策略，以最大程度地减少Covid-19在当前锁定后重新启动La Liga季节的可能性。
In this work, we present a stochastic discrete-time SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model adapted to describe the propagation of COVID-19 during a football tournament. Specifically, we are concerned about the re-start of the Spanish national football league, La Liga, which is currently -May 2020- stopped with 11 fixtures remaining. Our model includes two additional states of an individual, confined and quarantined, which are reached when an individual presents COVID-19 symptoms or has undergone a virus test with a positive result. The model also accounts for the interaction dynamics of players, considering three different sources of infection: the player social circle, the contact with his/her team colleagues during training sessions, and the interaction with rivals during a match. Our results highlight the influence of the days between matches, the frequency of virus tests and their sensitivity on the number of players infected at the end of the season. Following our findings, we finally present a variety of strategies to minimize the probability that COVID-19 propagates in case the season of La Liga was re-started after the current lockdown.
