论文标题
在锁定下调查印度Covid-19的大流行的动态
Investigating the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India under lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们研究了2019年12月在中国武汉出现在印度的Covid-19的持续动态。我们讨论了2020年3月25日在印度实施的全国性锁定的影响，以防止Covid-19的蔓延。考虑到全国范围内封锁的效果以及2020年5月3日撤离后的活动案件的影响，我们的模型预测，我们的模型预测，随着持续的锁定案件的限制，$ tem the Peak airme of 21 $ ude $ ude $ ude $ udy $ y，我们的模型预测，$ y $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $ the $。主动感染案例对于各种假设情景的价值，反映了政府在股后时期实施的控制策略的相对放松。对于印度来说，提出非药物控制策略（例如全国锁定40天）是一个重要的决定，以延长Covid-19的较高阶段，并避免对其公共保健系统的严重负担。由于正在进行的COVID-19爆发仍然是全球威胁，因此，所有国家提出有效的公共卫生和行政策略来与Covid-19与Covid-19并维持其经济体是一个挑战。
In this paper, we investigate the ongoing dynamics of COVID-19 in India after its emergence in Wuhan, China in December 2019. We discuss the effect of nationwide lockdown implemented in India on March 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is used to forecast active COVID-19 cases in India considering the effect of nationwide lockdown and possible inflation in the active cases after its removal on May 3, 2020. Our model predicts that with the ongoing lockdown, the peak of active infected cases around 43,000 will occur in the mid of May, 2020. We also predict a 7$\%$ to 21$\%$ increase in the peak value of active infected cases for a variety of hypothetical scenarios reflecting a relative relaxation in the control strategies implemented by the government in the post-lockdown period. For India, it is an important decision to come up with a non-pharmaceutical control strategy such as nationwide lockdown for 40 days to prolong the higher phases of COVID-19 and to avoid severe load on its public health-care system. As the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak remains a global threat, it is a challenge for all the countries to come up with effective public health and administrative strategies to battle against COVID-19 and sustain their economies.
