论文标题
长期任期的时空张量预测乘客流量轮廓
Long-Short Term Spatiotemporal Tensor Prediction for Passenger Flow Profile
论文作者
论文摘要
时空数据在许多应用中非常普遍,例如制造系统和运输系统。考虑到固有的复杂空间和时间相关,通常很难准确预测。大多数基于各种统计模型和正规化项的现有方法都无法在数据中保留与其复杂相关性的先天特征。在本文中,我们专注于基于张量的预测,并提出了几种改善预测的实用技术。对于长期的预测,我们提出了“张量分解 + 2维自动回火平均值(2D-ARMA)”模型,这是实时更新预测预测的有效方法;对于短期预测,我们建议基于张量聚类进行张量完成,以避免过度简化并确保准确性。进行了基于地铁乘客流量数据的案例研究以证明性能的提高。
Spatiotemporal data is very common in many applications, such as manufacturing systems and transportation systems. It is typically difficult to be accurately predicted given intrinsic complex spatial and temporal correlations. Most of the existing methods based on various statistical models and regularization terms, fail to preserve innate features in data alongside their complex correlations. In this paper, we focus on a tensor-based prediction and propose several practical techniques to improve prediction. For long-term prediction specifically, we propose the "Tensor Decomposition + 2-Dimensional Auto-Regressive Moving Average (2D-ARMA)" model, and an effective way to update prediction real-time; For short-term prediction, we propose to conduct tensor completion based on tensor clustering to avoid oversimplifying and ensure accuracy. A case study based on the metro passenger flow data is conducted to demonstrate the improved performance.