论文标题
发烧和流动性数据表明，社会距离降低了美国传染病的发病率
Fever and mobility data indicate social distancing has reduced incidence of communicable disease in the United States
论文作者
论文摘要
2020年3月，许多美国政府鼓励或要求对社会互动的限制，以减缓Covid-19的传播，这是由新型冠状病毒SARS-COV-2引起的疾病，该疾病已扩散到近180个国家。估计这些社会统治策略的有效性是具有挑战性的，因为Covid-19的监视受到限制，根据时间和区域性变化的标准，对高风险或住院病例的测试通常优先考虑。在这里，我们表明，在平均6.5天的平均滞后时间为6.5天（3--10天内$ 90 \％$）之后，与智能温度计捕获至少100例COVID-19的美国县的流动性降低导致发烧发病率的减少，这与Covid-19的孵育期一致。此外，移动性降低较大的县随后降低了发烧（$ p <0.01 $），但纽约市及其附近的显着除外。这些结果表明，社会距离减少了包括Covid 19在内的疾病等流感的传播，并支持社会疏远，作为减慢Covid-19的传播的有效策略。
In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries. Estimating the effectiveness of these social-distancing strategies is challenging because surveillance of COVID-19 has been limited, with tests generally being prioritized for high-risk or hospitalized cases according to temporally and regionally varying criteria. Here we show that reductions in mobility across U.S. counties with at least 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 led to reductions in fever incidences, as captured by smart thermometers, after a mean lag of 6.5 days ($90\%$ within 3--10 days) that is consistent with the incubation period of COVID-19. Furthermore, counties with larger decreases in mobility subsequently achieved greater reductions in fevers ($p<0.01$), with the notable exception of New York City and its immediate vicinity. These results indicate that social distancing has reduced the transmission of influenza like illnesses, including COVID 19, and support social distancing as an effective strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19.
