论文标题
COVID-19应通过混合约束来抑制 - 从受约束的无尺度网络上的模拟。
COVID-19 Should be Suppressed by Mixed Constraints -- from Simulations on Constrained Scale-Free Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
在这里，在人工人工网络上模拟了病毒感染的传播。在这里，人们的真正空间城市生活被建模为具有限制因素的无规模网络。到目前为止，已经采用了一个无标度网络来建模在线社区，但在这里采用了代表人们的社会行为，其中生成的社区受到限制，反映了现实生活中的时空约束。结果，已经获得了三个调查结果和一项政策建议。首先，感染病例数量的时间顺序中峰的高度往往会减小，以对应于所有成员相遇的组大小的上限。其次，如果我们采用对M0的限制，则每次单独遇到的所有其他人的数量达到2至8之间，它对抑制感染的影响可能会较弱，只要我们允许小组大小W的小组会议，大小为8或更大。第三，这种适度的限制似乎暂时可以用于减少早期感染，但事实可能只是峰值的延迟。基于这些结果，这里提出了一项策略：为了快速抑制感染的数量，如果最多制造M0的约束过于严格，则将W限制在小于4。如果W设置为小于4，则将M0至4或更少的工作设置为根据结果快速减少感染的工作。
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line communities so far but is employed here for the aim to represent peoples' social behaviors where the generated communities are restricted reflecting the spatiotemporal constraints in the real life. As a result, three findings and a policy proposal have been obtained. First, the height of the peaks in the time sequence of the number of infection cases tends to get reduced corresponding to the upper bound of the size of groups where all members meet. Second, if we adopt the constraint on m0, the number of all other people one meets separately each at a time, to the range between 2 and 8, its effect on the suppression of infections may be weak as far as we allow group meetings of size W of 8 or larger. Third, such a moderate constraint may temporarily seem to work for the reduction of infections in the early stage but it may turn out to be just a delay of peaks. Based on these results, a policy is proposed here: for quickly suppressing the number of infections, restrict W to less than 4 if the constraint to make m0 at most 1 is too strict. If W is set to less than 4, setting m0 to 4 or less works for quick reduction of infections according to the result.
