论文标题
通过随机扩散搜索选择蓄能器下注
Accumulator Bet Selection Through Stochastic Diffusion Search
论文作者
论文摘要
累加器是一个赌注，它提出了一个相当独特的支出结构，因为它将多个赌注结合到一个赌注中，该赌注可以产生由单个零件的乘法乘法给出的总支出。这些潜在的重要回报会增加损失的风险。实际上，在此选择中，单个不正确的下注的存在将使整个蓄能器损失。选择一组比赛以进行累加器的复杂性以及识别获胜组合的机会的数量均大大增加了，随着当今梅特斯拥有的更容易获得在线和离线博彩公司。我们解决了体育博彩的这种相对研究的组合方面，并为选择最有希望的比赛组合的问题提出了二进制优化模型，就其总潜在的支出和胜利的可能性而言，以形成累积的赌注。正在进行的计算实验的结果将我们的模型应用于与全球四个主要足球联赛有关的真实数据，并与单个BET选择方法相比。
An accumulator is a bet that presents a rather unique payout structure, in that it combines multiple bets into a wager that can generate a total payout given by the multiplication of the individual odds of its parts. These potentially important returns come however at an increased risk of a loss. Indeed, the presence of a single incorrect bet in this selection would make the whole accumulator lose. The complexity of selecting a set of matches to place an accumulator bet on, as well as the number of opportunities to identify winning combinations have both dramatically increased with the easier access to online and offline bookmakers that bettors have nowadays. We address this relatively under-studied combinatorial aspect of sports betting, and propose a binary optimization model for the problem of selecting the most promising combinations of matches, in terms of their total potential payout and probability of a win, to form an accumulator bet. The results of an ongoing computational experiment, in which our model is applied to real data pertaining to the four main football leagues in the world over a complete season, are presented and compared to those of single bet selection methods.
