论文标题
提取COVID-19大流行的有效接触率
Extracting the effective contact rate of COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在没有任何可用的疫苗或药物的情况下，通过采取许多缓解措施来预防2019年冠状病毒疾病的传播（COVID-19）。具有强大而可靠的方法来评估这些措施的有效性是必不可少的。在这项工作中，我们假设在非常粗糙的描述水平上，所有缓解措施的总体效果是，我们仍然可以使用最基本的暴露于易感性的转移（$ SEIR $）模型来描述大流行的传播，但具有“有效的接触率”（$β$），这是时间依赖时间的。然后，我们使用人口中受感染个体数量的时间序列数据提取瞬时有效接触率，这是进行了各种社会干预措施的结果。这种方法有可能在评估缓解措施对COVID-19的不久将来对Covid-19的影响的影响时具有显着有用的可能性。
In the absence of any available vaccines or drugs, prevention of the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being achieved by putting many mitigation measures in place. It is indispensable to have robust and reliable ways of evaluating the effectiveness of these measures. In this work, we assume that, at a very coarse-grained level of description, the overall effect of all the mitigation measures is that we can still describe the spread of the pandemic using the most basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed ($SEIR$) model but with an "effective contact rate" ($β$) which is time-dependent. We then use the time series data of the number of infected individuals in the population to extract the instantaneous effective contact rate which is the result of various social interventions put in place. This approach has the potential to be significantly useful while evaluating the impact of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in near future.
