论文标题
数字牛群免疫力和共同19
Digital Herd Immunity and COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
即使并非所有的成员都可以免疫这种疾病，只要有足够多的人是免疫力的，这是传统的群体免疫力概念，即使并非所有人都可以免疫这种疾病。在智能手机时代，即使没有一个成员的人不受疾病的影响，人口也可以免疫流行病 - 我们称之为“数字畜群豁免”的概念，这同样是人口的新兴特征。这种免疫力之所以出现，是因为基于智能手机功能的接触追踪方案可以导致受感染人群成员的高效隔离，从而消除了新生的流行病。当疾病特征有利并且智能手机使用足够高时，人口处于这种免疫阶段。随着用法的减少，有一个新型的“接触追踪相位转变”到流行阶段。我们介绍并研究了Covid-19的简单分支过程模型，并表明，无论非症状传播的比例如何，数字免疫都是可能的。
A population can be immune to epidemics even if not all of its individual members are immune to the disease, so long as sufficiently many are immune - this is the traditional notion of herd immunity. In the smartphone era a population can be immune to epidemics even if not a single one of its members is immune to the disease - a notion we call "digital herd immunity", which is similarly an emergent characteristic of the population. This immunity arises because contact-tracing protocols based on smartphone capabilities can lead to highly efficient quarantining of infected population members and thus the extinguishing of nascent epidemics. When the disease characteristics are favorable and smartphone usage is high enough, the population is in this immune phase. As usage decreases there is a novel "contact-tracing phase transition" to an epidemic phase. We present and study a simple branching-process model for COVID-19 and show that digital immunity is possible regardless of the proportion of non-symptomatic transmission.
