论文标题
远程依赖时间序列的基于等级的更改点分析
Rank-based change-point analysis for long-range dependent time series
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑基于等级统计的变更点测试,以测试远程依赖观测的结构变化。在固定时间序列的假设以及随着变化点降低高度降低的假设下,得出了相应的测试统计数据的渐近分布。为此,证明了配备有加权上皮标准的两参数Skorohod空间中顺序经验过程的均匀还原原理。此外,我们比较了考虑不同分数函数所产生的等级测试的效率。在高斯性下,与得分函数无关,基于等级测试的渐近相对效率为1。关于基于等级的更改点测试的实际实施,我们建议将自相应的等级统计数据与子采样相结合。理论结果伴随着模拟研究,特别是可以比较由不同分数功能引起的等级测试。关于基于等级的更改点测试的有限样本性能,范德沃登等级测试在广泛的情况下被证明是有利的。最后,我们根据结构变化分析了经济,水文学和网络流量监控的数据集,并将我们的结果与对数据的先前分析进行了比较。
We consider change-point tests based on rank statistics to test for structural changes in long-range dependent observations. Under the hypothesis of stationary time series and under the assumption of a change with decreasing change-point height, the asymptotic distributions of corresponding test statistics are derived. For this, a uniform reduction principle for the sequential empirical process in a two-parameter Skorohod space equipped with a weighted supremum norm is proved. Moreover, we compare the efficiency of rank tests resulting from the consideration of different score functions. Under Gaussianity, the asymptotic relative efficiency of rank-based tests with respect to the CuSum test is 1, irrespective of the score function. Regarding the practical implementation of rank-based change-point tests, we suggest to combine self-normalized rank statistics with subsampling. The theoretical results are accompanied by simulation studies that, in particular, allow for a comparison of rank tests resulting from different score functions. With respect to the finite sample performance of rank-based change-point tests, the Van der Waerden rank test proves to be favorable in a broad range of situations. Finally, we analyze data sets from economy, hydrology, and network traffic monitoring in view of structural changes and compare our results to previous analysis of the data.