论文标题
基于区域代理的模拟南非揭示的Covid-19爆发的有限遏制选择
Limited containment options of COVID-19 outbreak revealed by regional agent-based simulations for South Africa
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19已从中国传播到欧洲和美国，并已成为全球大流行。在全球南方国家，由于社会经济选择和医疗保健系统的较弱，有效的当地对策仍在争论。我们将大规模的社会经济和交通调查数据与基于详细的代理商的当地运输模拟结合在一起，以分析南非尼尔森·曼德拉湾市的区域模型中的covid-19，在各种对策场景下。模拟表明，任何现实的遏制策略，包括类似于南非持续的遏制策略，都可能产生多种可用的重症监护病房（ICU）。只有直接和最严重的对策，直至完全限制所有联合人类活动的完整锁定，才能有效地包含流行病。 与全球南部的许多其他国家相比，南非表现出相当有利的条件，我们的发现构成了粗略的保守估计，并可能支持确定策略遏制Covid-19，以及这些国家的任何主要未来大流行。
COVID-19 has spread from China across Europe and the United States and has become a global pandemic. In countries of the Global South, due to often weaker socioeconomic options and health care systems, effective local countermeasures remain debated. We combine large-scale socioeconomic and traffic survey data with detailed agent-based simulations of local transportation to analyze COVID-19 spreading in a regional model for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality in South Africa under a range of countermeasure scenarios. The simulations indicate that any realistic containment strategy, including those similar to the one ongoing in South Africa, may yield a manifold overload of available intensive care units (ICUs). Only immediate and the most severe countermeasures, up to a complete lock-down that essentially inhibits all joint human activities, can contain the epidemic effectively. As South Africa exhibits rather favorable conditions compared to many other countries of the Global South, our findings constitute rough conservative estimates and may support identifying strategies towards containing COVID-19 as well as any major future pandemics in these countries.
