论文标题
COVID-19的效率通过测量时间依赖的时间加倍时间来限制移动接触追踪遏制
Efficiency of Covid-19 Mobile Contact Tracing Containment by Measuring Time Dependent Doubling Time
论文作者
论文摘要
新型冠状病毒（严重的急性呼吸综合症SARS-COV-2）的Covid-19流行病一直在世界各地传播。尽管已采用非药物干预措施采用了不同的遏制策略，但它们的效率在数量上并不知道。我们表明，与成功s的成功系数（t）的两倍时间TD（t）在被捕的制度中的指数增长的特征时间是可靠的工具，用于早期预测流行病的扩散时间演化，并提供了对不同遏制度量的成功度量。使用强制性移动接触跟踪发现移动跟踪（LFT）的遏制政策锁定案件的效率比伦敦帝国学院团队提出的锁定停止和GO（LSG）政策要高得多。 LFT政策达到了非常低的S因子，从而使圆顶曲线的圆顶宽度最短，死亡人数最低。 LFT政策已经能够减少100因子100在COVID-19流行病的前100天中的死亡人数，从而将Covid-19-19大流行穹顶的时间宽度减少2.5，并迅速停止新爆发，避免了第二波
The Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied, their efficiency are not known quantitatively. We show that the doubling time Td(t) with the success s factor, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of Td(t) in the arrested regime, is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and it provides a quantitative measure of the success of different containment measures. The efficiency of the containment policy Lockdown case Finding mobile Tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than the Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor was reached by LFT policy giving the shortest time width of the dome of positive case curve and the lowest number of fatalities. The LFT policy has been able to reduce by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 100 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave
