论文标题
人群的智慧在正式可用的数据之前检测到Covid-19的严重性
Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data
论文作者
论文摘要
在危机的展开期间，确定其严重性至关重要，但是获得可靠数据的访问既有挑战性。我们研究了一个月后，在意大利，西班牙和美国地区的大流行开始时，在大流行开始时，最初的Covid-19的地理推文强度与一个月后的死亡率之间的关系之间的关系。我们发现，早期社交媒体反应与大约一个月后的Covid-19死亡人数之间的累积数量之间的显着比例。我们的发现表明，“人群”正确地看出了风险。这是可以在实践中量化和应用的少数几个例子之一。这可用于创建可能有助于危机管理和干预的实时警报系统，尤其是在发展中国家。这种系统可能有助于在危机的早期阶段为快速响应政策制定提供信息。
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the pandemic across Italian, Spanish and USA regions and mortality in the region a month later. We find significant proportionality between early social media reaction and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths almost a month later. Our findings suggest that "the crowds" perceived the risk correctly. This is one of the few examples where the "wisdom of crowds" can be quantified and applied in practice. This can be used to create real-time alert systems that could be of help for crisis-management and intervention, especially in developing countries. Such systems could contribute to inform fast-response policy making at early stages of a crisis.
