论文标题
关于比较共同199的死亡率的问题
On the problem of comparing Covid-19 fatality rates
论文作者
论文摘要
了解Covid-19-19的致命性及其从国家到国家的变化对于支持政府选择适当的策略至关重要。在爆发过程中采用正确的指标来监测感染的致死性是一个至关重要的问题。这项工作强调了时间依赖的病例死亡率是估计爆发过程中死亡的误导性指标，即使我们的注意力仅限于确认病例的子集。我们的分析证明，几个主要欧洲主要国家的最终案件死亡比率必将在很大程度上超过10％。意大利和其他主要欧洲国家之间的死亡比率的差异在很大程度上被归因于意大利流行病的更高级阶段。
Understanding Covid-19 lethality and its variation from country to country is essential for supporting governments in the choice of appropriate strategies. Adopting correct indicators to monitor the lethality of the infection in the course of the outbreak is a crucial issue. This works highlights how far the time-dependent case fatality rate is a misleading indicator for estimating the fatality in the course of the outbreak, even if our attention is only restricted to the subset of confirmed cases. Our analysis proves that the final case fatality ratio for several major European countries is bound to largely exceed 10%. The largely discussed difference in the fatality ratio between Italy and other major European countries, is to be mostly attributed (except for the case of Germany) to the more advanced stage of the Italian epidemic.
