论文标题
关于社会疏远对流感样疾病和Covid-19的影响的观察性研究协议
Protocol for an Observational Study on the Effects of Social Distancing on Influenza-Like Illness and COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)是一种高度传染性的呼吸道疾病,于2019年12月在中国武汉首次被检测到,此后遍布全球,声称该协议写成时,已有69,000多人的生命。人们普遍承认,减轻大流行的最有效的公共政策是\ emph {社会和身体疏远}:保持至少六英尺远离人们,在家工作,闭幕企业等。非必要的企业等,表明社会疏远表明社会疏远对疾病缓解疾病有因果影响;但是,很少有研究以透明和统计的方式调查了社会疏远对缓解疾病的影响。 我们建议对具有相似观察到的协变量的对县进行最佳的非双方匹配,但在第一周(3月16日至比赛第22届比赛)\ emph {15天的第一周(3月16日至比赛)中,平均平均社会距离得分却大不相同,以减慢传播}活动。我们总共生产了$ 302美元的两个美国县,具有良好的协变量余额,总计$ 16 $重要变量。我们的主要结果将是干预期两周后Kinsa Inc.收集的平均观察到的疾病。尽管观察到的疾病并未直接测量相互作用-19,但它反映了大流行的实时方面,并且与确认的病例不同,县的测试能力却不那么混淆。我们还将干预期三周后观察到的疾病视为次要结果。我们将使用基于随机的测试进行协方差调整并进行灵敏度分析来测试比例治疗效果。
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has since spread around the globe, claiming more than 69,000 lives by the time this protocol is written. It has been widely acknowledged that the most effective public policy to mitigate the pandemic is \emph{social and physical distancing}: keeping at least six feet away from people, working from home, closing non-essential businesses, etc. There have been a lot of anecdotal evidences suggesting that social distancing has a causal effect on disease mitigation; however, few studies have investigated the effect of social distancing on disease mitigation in a transparent and statistically-sound manner. We propose to perform an optimal non-bipartite matching to pair counties with similar observed covariates but vastly different average social distancing scores during the first week (March 16th through Match 22nd) of President's \emph{15 Days to Slow the Spread} campaign. We have produced a total of $302$ pairs of two U.S. counties with good covariate balance on a total of $16$ important variables. Our primary outcome will be the average observed illness collected by Kinsa Inc. two weeks after the intervention period. Although the observed illness does not directly measure COVID-19, it reflects a real-time aspect of the pandemic, and unlike confirmed cases, it is much less confounded by counties' testing capabilities. We also consider observed illness three weeks after the intervention period as a secondary outcome. We will test a proportional treatment effect using a randomization-based test with covariance adjustment and conduct a sensitivity analysis.