论文标题
19009人口动态的随机建模和估计
Stochastic modeling and estimation of COVID-19 population dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的是描述一个国家或一个地区人口污染的开发模型。为此，考虑了具有两种类型个体的特殊分支过程。该模型旨在仅使用观察到的每日统计数据来估计污染的主要参数，并预测被污染的个体的非观察群体的平均值。与其他更复杂的模型相比，这是一个严重的优势，在该模型中，观察到的官方统计数据不够。通过这种方式，考虑到不同国家，Covid-19的特定发展被考虑。
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is intended to use only the observed daily statistics to estimate the main parameter of the contamination and to give a prediction of the mean value of the non-observed population of the contaminated individuals. This is a serious advantage in comparison with other more complicated models where the observed official statistics are not sufficient. In this way the specific development of the Covid-19 epidemics is considered for different countries.
