论文标题
马拉维湖郡河系统调节的随机水文模型
A Stochastic Hydrological Model for Regulation of Lake Malawi Shire River system
论文作者
论文摘要
库祖弹片位于马拉维南部地区的Liwonde，是沿郡河流水流的唯一设施，该设施对马拉维湖的水位有重大影响。在本文中，提出了用于优化Kamuzu弹幕的水文模型，称为Kamuzu Barrage操作模型（KABOM）。该模型是基于随机水文学的Kamuzu弹幕进行水资源管理的工具。随机模型使用马拉维湖和Liwonde附近的Shire River的水位读数，从1900年1月至今。通过使用Liwonde的历史评级曲线，并开发了更新的2003 PO.-2003洪水等级曲线，该模型可以在整个时期计算Liwonde的流量。该模型模拟了过去115年来基于湖泊水平和流动记录的一系列概率的可用水预算，以及从其支流到夏尔河流入的当地流入数据的可用数据。结果为在Kamuzu Barrage中选择释放策略提供了一个基础，该策略每天都用于优化弹药的释放。产生的分位数表现出强烈的季节性变化，2月和3月在雨季的最高自由水预测以及6月和7月在旱季的最低月份。模拟结果在2016年12月至2017年10月期间针对实际的自由水值控制，这表明了令人满意的验证
Located in Liwonde in the Southern Region of Malawi, Kamuzu Barrage is the only facility for regulation of water flow down Shire River, which has a major influence on water levels in Lake Malawi. In this article a hydrological model for optimized operation of the Kamuzu Barrage called the Kamuzu Barrage Operation Model (KABOM) is presented. This model is a tool for water resource management at the Kamuzu Barrage based on stochastic hydrology. The stochastic model uses water level readings at Lake Malawi and at the Shire River near Liwonde stretching from January 1900 to date. By using historical rating curves at Liwonde, and developing an updated post-2003 flood rating curve, the model can calculate flow at Liwonde for the entire period. The model simulates available water budgets for a range of probabilities based on the Lake Level and flow record over the past 115 years, plus available data on local inflows to the Shire River from its tributaries. The results provide a basis for choosing a release strategy in Kamuzu Barrage, which is used in optimizing the release at the barrage on daily basis. Resulting quantiles display a strong seasonal variation, highest Freewater forecasts within February and March in the rainy season, and the lowest months of June and July in dry season. The results for simulation are controlled against actual Freewater values in the period of December 2016 to October 2017, which demonstrates a satisfactory validation
