论文标题
冠状病毒优化算法:基于COVID-19
Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm: A bioinspired metaheuristic based on the COVID-19 propagation model
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中提出了一种新型的生物启发性元神经,模拟了冠状病毒如何传播和感染健康的人。冠状病毒从最初的个体(零患者)以已知的速度感染新患者,从而创造了新的受感染人群。每个人都可以死亡或感染,然后将其发送到恢复的人群。在模型中引入了相关术语,例如重新感染概率,超级扩张率或旅行率,以便尽可能准确地模拟冠状病毒活动。与其他类似策略相比,冠状病毒优化算法具有两个主要优势。首先,输入参数已经根据疾病统计数据设定,使研究人员无法用任意值初始化它们。其次,该方法具有几次迭代后结束的能力,而无需设置此值。受感染的人群最初以指数级的速度增长,但是经过一些迭代,在考虑社会隔离措施以及恢复和死亡人数的大量措施时,被感染者的数量开始在随后的迭代中减少。此外,提出了平行的多病毒版本,其中几种冠状病毒菌株会随着时间的流逝而发展,并在更少的迭代中探索更广阔的搜索空间区域。最后,元神经术与深度学习模型相结合,以便在训练阶段找到最佳的超参数。作为应用程序案例,已经解决了电力负载时间序列的预测问题,表现出色。
A novel bioinspired metaheuristic is proposed in this work, simulating how the coronavirus spreads and infects healthy people. From an initial individual (the patient zero), the coronavirus infects new patients at known rates, creating new populations of infected people. Every individual can either die or infect and, afterwards, be sent to the recovered population. Relevant terms such as re-infection probability, super-spreading rate or traveling rate are introduced in the model in order to simulate as accurately as possible the coronavirus activity. The Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm has two major advantages compared to other similar strategies. First, the input parameters are already set according to the disease statistics, preventing researchers from initializing them with arbitrary values. Second, the approach has the ability of ending after several iterations, without setting this value either. Infected population initially grows at an exponential rate but after some iterations, when considering social isolation measures and the high number recovered and dead people, the number of infected people starts decreasing in subsequent iterations. Furthermore, a parallel multi-virus version is proposed in which several coronavirus strains evolve over time and explore wider search space areas in less iterations. Finally, the metaheuristic has been combined with deep learning models, in order to find optimal hyperparameters during the training phase. As application case, the problem of electricity load time series forecasting has been addressed, showing quite remarkable performance.