论文标题

Dirichlet工艺混合模型用于回归不连续设计

Dirichlet Process Mixture Models for Regression Discontinuity Designs

论文作者

Ricciardi, Federico, Liverani, Silvia, Baio, Gianluca

论文摘要

回归不连续设计(RDD)是一种准实验设计,当治疗的分配由连续分配变量定义时,估计治疗的因果效应。 RDD假设在阈值附近带宽内测量的受试者属于共同人群,因此可以将阈值视为一种随机化设备,将治疗方法分配给距离阈值高于阈值的人并从落在低于下方的人的情况下扣留。 带宽选择代表了RDD分析的令人信服的决策,因为结果可能对其选择高度敏感。已经提出了许多选择最佳带宽的方法,主要源自计量经济学文献。但是,它们在实践中的使用是有限的。 我们提出了一种方法,该方法从应用的角度解决问题,考虑单位的交换性,即它们相对于测得的协变量的相似性,作为选择分析的主题,无论其与阈值的距离无关。我们使用Dirichlet工艺混合模型在样品上进行聚类,以识别平衡和均匀的簇。我们的建议利用后验相似性矩阵,其中包含成对概率,即两个观测值分配给MCMC样本中的同一群集。因此,我们仅包括RDD分析中的那些群集,我们拥有更强有力的交换性证据。 我们通过使用英国初级保健数据来说明我们方法的有效性,也是对他汀类药物对降低胆固醇水平降低胆固醇水平的影响的激励例子。

The Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effect of a treatment when its assignment is defined by a threshold value for a continuous assignment variable. The RDD assumes that subjects with measurements within a bandwidth around the threshold belong to a common population, so that the threshold can be seen as a randomising device assigning treatment to those falling just above the threshold and withholding it from those who fall just below. Bandwidth selection represents a compelling decision for the RDD analysis as the results may be highly sensitive to its choice. A number of methods to select the optimal bandwidth, mainly originating from the econometric literature, have been proposed. However, their use in practice is limited. We propose a methodology that, tackling the problem from an applied point of view, consider units' exchangeability, i.e., their similarity with respect to measured covariates, as the main criteria to select subjects for the analysis, irrespectively of their distance from the threshold. We carry out clustering on the sample using a Dirichlet process mixture model to identify balanced and homogeneous clusters. Our proposal exploits the posterior similarity matrix, which contains the pairwise probabilities that two observations are allocated to the same cluster in the MCMC sample. Thus we include in the RDD analysis only those clusters for which we have stronger evidence of exchangeability. We illustrate the validity of our methodology with both a simulated experiment and a motivating example on the effect of statins to lower cholesterol level, using UK primary care data.

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