论文标题

流行病,伊辛模型和渗透理论:综合综述,重点是19

Epidemics, the Ising-model and percolation theory: a comprehensive review focussed on Covid-19

论文作者

Mello, Isys F., Squillante, Lucas, Gomes, Gabriel O., Seridonio, Antonio C., de Souza, M.

论文摘要

我们重新审视了良好的流行病学概念,Ising模型和渗透理论。此外,我们采用旋转$ s $ = 1/2类似ISI​​NG的模型和(Logistic)Fermi-Dirac样函数来描述Covid-19的传播。我们的分析加强了公认的文献结果,即:\ emph {i})可以通过高斯型函数来描述流行病曲线。 \ emph {ii})认为,感染和死亡的累积数量的时间演变遵循逻辑功能,这与扭曲的fermi-dirac样函数具有一定的相似之处。 \ emph {iii})通过\ emph {互动}参数来阻止隔离的关键作用,以阻止covid-19的扩散,该参数模仿了受感染和未感染的人之间的接触。此外,在基本渗滤理论的框架中,我们表明:\ emph {i})渗透概率可以与被covid-19感染的人感染的概率相关联; \ emph {ii})分别与一个尊重或不尊重社会疏远的人相关联的概念可以分别相关联,因此影响了受感染者感染他人的可能性。增加感染者的数量会导致净连接数量增加,从而增加新感染的可能性(渗透率)。我们证明了社会疏远在防止以教学方式传播的重要性。鉴于不可能对疾病扩散进行准确的预测,我们强调了在流行病学的数学描述中考虑其他因素,例如气候变化和城市化。然而,我们之间在流行病中使用的标准数学模型与凝聚态物理学的概念(例如费米气体和Landau Fermi-liquid图片)之间建立了联系。

We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis reinforces well-established literature results, namely: \emph{i}) that the epidemic curves can be described by a Gaussian-type function; \emph{ii}) that the temporal evolution of the accumulative number of infections and fatalities follow a logistic function, which has some resemblance with a distorted Fermi-Dirac-like function; \emph{iii}) the key role played by the quarantine to block the spread of Covid-19 in terms of an \emph{interacting} parameter, which emulates the contact between infected and non-infected people. Furthermore, in the frame of elementary percolation theory, we show that: \emph{i}) the percolation probability can be associated with the probability of a person being infected with Covid-19; \emph{ii}) the concepts of blocked and non-blocked connections can be associated, respectively, with a person respecting or not the social distancing, impacting thus in the probability of an infected person to infect other people. Increasing the number of infected people leads to an increase in the number of net connections, giving rise thus to a higher probability of new infections (percolation). We demonstrate the importance of social distancing in preventing the spread of Covid-19 in a pedagogical way. Given the impossibility of making a precise forecast of the disease spread, we highlight the importance of taking into account additional factors, such as climate changes and urbanization, in the mathematical description of epidemics. Yet, we make a connection between the standard mathematical models employed in epidemics and well-established concepts in condensed matter Physics, such as the Fermi gas and the Landau Fermi-liquid picture.

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