论文标题
一种针对因果效应的紧密符号界限的一般方法
A General Method for Deriving Tight Symbolic Bounds on Causal Effects
论文作者
论文摘要
从观察到的数据中通常不可识别因果查询,在这种情况下,没有进一步的假设或测量变量,不管观察到的变量测量的数量或精度如何。但是,仍然有可能根据观察到的变量的分布来得出查询上的符号界限。数字或象征性的界限通常比在难以置信的假设下得出的统计估计器更有价值。然而,符号界限提供了一种衡量不确定性和信息损失的量度,因为即使在没有数据的情况下也缺乏可识别的估计。我们开发并描述了一种计算符号界限的一般方法,并表征了一类设置,其中保证我们的方法提供了紧密的有效界限。这扩展了已知的设置,在该设置中,紧密的因果关系是线性程序的解决方案。我们还证明,我们的方法可以提供有效的象征性界限,这些界限不能保证在更大的问题中会紧张。我们在三个示例中说明了我们算法的使用和解释,在这些示例中,我们得出了新的象征性界限。
A causal query will commonly not be identifiable from observed data, in which case no estimator of the query can be contrived without further assumptions or measured variables, regardless of the amount or precision of the measurements of observed variables. However, it may still be possible to derive symbolic bounds on the query in terms of the distribution of observed variables. Bounds, numeric or symbolic, can often be more valuable than a statistical estimator derived under implausible assumptions. Symbolic bounds, however, provide a measure of uncertainty and information loss due to the lack of an identifiable estimand even in the absence of data. We develop and describe a general approach for computation of symbolic bounds and characterize a class of settings in which our method is guaranteed to provide tight valid bounds. This expands the known settings in which tight causal bounds are solutions to linear programs. We also prove that our method can provide valid and possibly informative symbolic bounds that are not guaranteed to be tight in a larger class of problems. We illustrate the use and interpretation of our algorithms in three examples in which we derive novel symbolic bounds.