论文标题
由于种群细分而引起的流行病动力学的随机影响
Stochastic effects on the dynamics of an epidemic due to population subdivision
论文作者
论文摘要
使用随机易感感染的疾病传播（SIR）元群体模型，我们提出了分析计算和数值模拟，将随机性与人口分裂之间的相互作用分解为相互独立的亚种群。我们表明，细分激活了两个随机效应---灭绝和不同步 - 即使总体人口已经离开了随机状态，并且基本的繁殖数量也不会因细分而改变。这两种效应都是通过我们的理论估计来定量捕获的，使我们能够确定他们对观察到的流行峰值降低的个人贡献。
Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a population into mutually independent sub-populations. We show that subdivision activates two stochastic effects---extinction and desynchronization---diminishing the overall impact of the outbreak, even when the total population has already left the stochastic regime and the basic reproduction number is not altered by the subdivision. Both effects are quantitatively captured by our theoretical estimates, allowing us to determine their individual contributions to the observed reduction of the peak of the epidemic.
