论文标题

对变更点检测算法的评估

An Evaluation of Change Point Detection Algorithms

论文作者

Burg, Gerrit J. J. van den, Williams, Christopher K. I.

论文摘要

变更点检测是时间序列分析的重要组成部分,因为变更点的存在表明数据生成过程的突然变化和显着变化。尽管已经提出了许多用于变更点检测的算法,但对于评估其在现实世界时间序列上的表现,几乎没有关注相对较少的关注。通常在模拟数据和少数具有不可靠地面真相的常用系列中评估算法。显然,这并不能充分了解这些算法的比较性能。因此,我们认为正确评估现实世界数据的现有算法更为重要,而不是开发另一种变化点检测方法。为了实现这一目标,我们提供了一个专门设计的数据集,专为评估变更点检测算法而设计,该算法由来自各个应用程序域的37个时间序列组成。每个系列都有五个人类注释者注释,以在变化点的存在和位置提供基础真理。我们分析了人类注释者的一致性,并描述了评估指标,这些指标可用于在存在多个基础真理注释的情况下测量算法性能。接下来,我们提出一项基准研究,其中评估了数据集中的每个时间序列的14个算法。我们的目的是,该数据集将在开发新的变化点检测算法的开发中成为一个证据。

Change point detection is an important part of time series analysis, as the presence of a change point indicates an abrupt and significant change in the data generating process. While many algorithms for change point detection have been proposed, comparatively little attention has been paid to evaluating their performance on real-world time series. Algorithms are typically evaluated on simulated data and a small number of commonly-used series with unreliable ground truth. Clearly this does not provide sufficient insight into the comparative performance of these algorithms. Therefore, instead of developing yet another change point detection method, we consider it vastly more important to properly evaluate existing algorithms on real-world data. To achieve this, we present a data set specifically designed for the evaluation of change point detection algorithms that consists of 37 time series from various application domains. Each series was annotated by five human annotators to provide ground truth on the presence and location of change points. We analyze the consistency of the human annotators, and describe evaluation metrics that can be used to measure algorithm performance in the presence of multiple ground truth annotations. Next, we present a benchmark study where 14 algorithms are evaluated on each of the time series in the data set. Our aim is that this data set will serve as a proving ground in the development of novel change point detection algorithms.

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